|
Post by alex on Jun 17, 2011 22:36:21 GMT 9.5
A few people have asked about betting on games in the past.
I'm wondering if anyone with a head for numbers and anunderstanding of how odds and such work and wants to run a tipping competition on the side, this would involve offering odds on each wednesday nights' games, "collecting" the cash from each player's treasury and paying out winnings after the games.
anyone interested in this idea?
|
|
addy
Warrant Officer
Posts: 181
|
Post by addy on Jun 18, 2011 8:37:30 GMT 9.5
Not a clue. But maybe you could just simplify it. Say double your money for a win and triple for the spread. or something similar. That way nobody is doing too much maths
|
|
|
Post by alex on Jun 18, 2011 10:47:24 GMT 9.5
I recon it would be way cool if there were a bunch of games with different odds and you got to choose where to put your money with a different return. Gup works with numbers maybe he'll know how it works.
|
|
addy
Warrant Officer
Posts: 181
|
Post by addy on Jun 18, 2011 12:16:11 GMT 9.5
Funny, I was thinking of him as well.
|
|
|
Post by alex on Jun 18, 2011 19:56:27 GMT 9.5
|
|
|
Post by guppyshark on Jun 19, 2011 13:47:53 GMT 9.5
In my first season of the CCKUP I wrote a spreadsheet to try and predict the outcomes of the remaining games of the schedule - this was very relevant for me as I wasn't sure how close I was to getting into the playoffs. The predictions I made were correct more often than not. For evidence, I present this forum post where I publically detailed who would make the cut and who wouldn't: www.talkfantasyfootball.org/viewtopic.php?p=538711#p538711"We have our best astrologists calculating the results of each match left in the schedule, and derived their final regular season points tallies:
Top 6 Teams (Predicted Score) Royal Hearts (33) Swiftwind Strikers (27) Dragonspine Stompers (21) Dark Lords (20) Three Wolf Moon (20) Cryxian Warmachines (16)"And then the actual playoff rankings: Dukes' Division Finals Standings
1. Royal Hearts 2. Dragonspine Stompers 3. Dark Lords 4. Swiftwind Strikers 5. Three Wolf MoonThe Stompers were the major outlier because Dwarves vs Elves is a matchup skewed more in favor of Dwarves than any other matchup I encountered, so they smashed a few elf teams to move up the ladder, when I had predicted losses for them. The problem with calculating this is I was basically flying blind, all I knew is that some teams were better than other teams. If I could see everything and datamine the crap out of it, I could have it include factors like player injuries, new skills, inducements, etc etc. I may even do it for the CCKUP just for shits and giggles. But would all that effort really pay off? We've got less than a dozen regular coaches so these sorts of grandiose schemes are excess to requirements. As is pointed out in the link Alex threw up, gambling odds are half a calculation of the chances of success and half the reaction as people bet for one side or the other - the lines will move as time passes, and it's well known that a bet against, say, the Dallas Cowboys will probably pay you well because of all the people who bet with passion not reason. TLDRYou can't do a 'proper' betting system in a limited pool of punters and players. Better off just letting people make opposed bets or something. "I have 100,000 that says the Psychopaths are going to win this game, any takers?" "I've got 50,000 that says they won't!" There, you've got 100,000 vs 50,000 (2-1) if both players agree. We can just let the market decide what the odds are!
|
|
|
Post by guppyshark on Jun 19, 2011 13:49:32 GMT 9.5
Caveat: Everything I know about gambling I learned from listening to the Bill Simmons podcast where he competes with one of his mates at guessing the Vegas odds I never put my money where my mouth is!
|
|
|
Post by alex on Jun 19, 2011 14:10:21 GMT 9.5
There is a major difference between what I'm proposing and an actual betting competition run by a bookie, this competition doesn't need to make any money for the bookie, he is just GMing the other players in their wagers.
I don't think we need to crunch the numbers like you did for cockup.
What I was envisioning was a pregame procedure to insert, whereby someone has gone through that nights game and drawn up odds for the winners and an appropriate payout. e.g. perhaps all bets could be in denominations of 100,000gp. In a game where both teams are evenly matched and judged to be a 50:50 proposition, you could bet 100,000gp and if your chosen team wins you get your 100,000gp back and also win 100,000gp. If the team you chose looses you loose your 100,000gp and win nothing. If the team is a slight favourite, say 60%chance of winning, then you would win less, say 80,000gp, on the otherhand if you bet in that match on the underdog (at 40% chance) you would win 120,000gp
So for a bet of 100,000 if you pick the right winner you'd take home your original 100,000 plus chance of winning - payout 5% - 190,000 10% - 180,000 20% - 160,000 30% - 140,000 40% - 120,000 45% - 110,000 50% - 100,000 55% - 90,000 60% - 80,000 70% - 60,000 80% - 40,000 90% - 20,000
does that sound logical?
|
|